Vice President JD Vance conceded Saturday that the administration is "in the middle of the game" with Iran — an admission that five months after the United States and Israel launched a war on Tehran, Washington still has no coherent strategy and American forces remain under fire across the Middle East.

The stake for ordinary Americans is direct: the Strait of Hormuz carried a fifth of the world's oil and gas before the February 28 attacks, according to NBC News. American bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Gulf states have taken Iranian hits. Oil prices swing on every rumor. And the deal taking shape would hand Tehran something it has wanted for decades — control over the most important energy shipping lane on earth.

Vance, who helped negotiate a "Memorandum of Understanding" with the Islamic regime in June, told Fox News that "the same amount of oil" would eventually flow through the strait but declined to explain how. "We're really in the middle of the game here," he said. "This thing is not over. It's obviously not at the beginning. We're in the middle of the game, and we're applying a whole host of tools – diplomatic, economic, military tools – to ensure that we get the best outcome for the American people."

That is not a strategy. It is a description of being stuck.

Meanwhile, Iran is not stuck — it is making demands. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran's National Security Council, spelled out conditions the US must meet: end the blockade, withdraw forces, lift sanctions, and pay reparations. The strait, he said, would not reopen until the US "corrects its behavior." He added that Iran's security council "will never back down, whether in war or in negotiations."

Vance responded by claiming Iran told the US it has "no plans to toll the Strait of Hormuz" and said the main challenge was clearing mines Iran itself laid early in the war. He insisted Iran is "hurting in a big way" and "wants this thing to be over."

But the facts on the ground tell a different story. NBC News reported that the UAE said Iran struck another ship — a carrier affiliated with its state oil company — with a missile as it transited the strait Saturday. Iran's Revolutionary Guards, through spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi, said reopening depends entirely on Washington accepting Iran's conditions. "Whenever the United States accepts Iran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will certainly be reopened," he told Tasnim news agency.

Most damning is what the deal actually contains. A senior Iranian source and two regional officials told Reuters, as reported by NBC News, that the proposed agreement between Iran and Oman would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the strait — described as "one of the biggest concessions yet to Iran." US officials have repeatedly insisted they would never agree to Iran controlling access to the waterway. NBC noted it was unclear whether they had changed that position.

The Trump administration has "repeatedly signaled that a deal to open the strait could be close, only to have Iran deny that talks are under way," NBC reported. A US official told Reuters on Friday that "once the deal is announced to restore commercial shipping without impediments, the United States will lift the blockade of Iranian ports." In other words: Iran blocks the strait, attacks shipping, demands concessions — and Washington lifts its blockade in return.

President Trump said Thursday a deal "could be soon." Oil prices have dropped on the optimism. The pattern is clear: Washington signals progress, Iran denies it, Iran attacks again, Washington signals progress once more.

The instability is spreading. The New York Times reported Saturday that Yemen is teetering back toward full-scale civil war, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels killing at least 17 soldiers in attacks on Marib and Hadramout provinces. Houthi attacks on civilian neighborhoods and a displaced persons camp near Marib killed two and wounded 14, including children. The Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia, has been fighting the Houthis since 2014, when the group seized Sanaa with Iranian support.

The Times framed the Yemen escalation as part of a region "hanging in the balance" — but the balance was tipped by a decision this administration and Israel made on February 28 to launch a war with no defined exit. Now Vance says we're "in the middle of the game." The question no one in Washington will answer: what does winning look like, what does it cost, and when do American forces come home?