Republicans are pouring unprecedented cash into red states they should never have to defend — and the reason is simple: they broke their promises and voters know it.

Three Trump-aligned PACs — MAGA Inc., No Going Back PAC, and Safety and Affordability PAC — have spent more than $163 million on advertising since Sept. 1, according to the Daily Caller, with nearly 40% of that money, some $63 million, dumped into states and districts President Trump won by double digits in 2024. The National Republican Senatorial Committee dropped another $46 million, including $9 million in Iowa, $11 million in Ohio, $2 million in Alaska, and $8 million in North Carolina, the New York Post reported.

This is checkbook conservatism in action: spend when you're scared, ignore the base when you're not.

The Senate map tells the story of a majority at risk. Republicans hold a 53-47 edge; lose four seats and Chuck Schumer runs the chamber. In Ohio, a state Trump carried by 13 points, former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 4 points. Ohio is now the most expensive Senate race in the country, drawing $307 million in combined ad spending, with Republicans alone spending over $152 million to prop up Husted. Fairshake, a crypto super PAC, kicked in another $30 million to oppose Brown, a longtime crypto critic.

In Texas, the Senate Leadership Fund's state PAC is spending over $100 million on TV ads to rescue AG Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico, with total expected spending between $150 million and $200 million, according to Punchbowl News. Talarico, it should be noted, has identified his favorite drag queen, claimed God is "non-binary," and called trans-identifying children "God's children" and "loved beyond measure." Paxton, for his part, carries his own baggage: a proposed plea deal that would have given a man who admitted to sexually abusing a young boy one day in jail, and a divorce filed by his ex-wife over an extramarital affair.

In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson — considered a top-tier candidate in a state Trump won with 56% — is now tied with Democrat Josh Turek. Some $73 million in Republican ad bookings have flooded the state. Larry Sabato moved Iowa to "toss-up" and Kansas to "leans Republican." The Cook Political Report moved 15 House seats toward Democrats on Friday.

Vulnerable Republicans are scrambling to distance themselves from the Iran war. Hinson and Michigan's Mike Rogers both put out statements critical of the conflict this week. Husted said the war "needs to come to an end as quickly as possible" but didn't vote for the War Powers resolution Thursday to halt military action. Iowa conservative Steve Deace warned the Iran war has become a "2020 Covid lockdown level of political albatross."

Sen. Jim Justice put it plainly to the Post: "When — my lord of living, all we had to do was really be in touch with the people four or five months ago... We've done all kinds of great stuff. You know, but we're tone deaf in a lot of ways."

Cook's Erin Covey pointed to fuel prices and tariffs as the drag in Ohio and Iowa, adding that the economic environment for Republicans may be worse than 2018, when Democrats flipped 40 House seats.

Even ICE raids are causing heartburn. Sen. Roger Marshall cautioned that "when ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement" as agents carried out immigration sweeps in his state.

NRSC Chair Tim Scott told Republican candidates in a Wednesday meeting to "run like they're behind," according to one GOP source — which is another way of saying they are.

The question heading into November: can attack ads paper over a record of broken promises and a war Americans didn't ask for? The spending says the party doesn't think so.