Oil prices have fallen back to prewar levels, but working Americans are catching a break not because of any brilliant policy — because the foreign intervention that drove prices to $118 a barrel has temporarily paused.
Brent crude hovered between $72 and $73 a barrel on Friday, according to the New York Times, a level not seen since before the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28. The price collapse is a psychological milestone, but the Times framed the drop as simple market mechanics — burying the fact that Washington and its allies created the crisis they're now taking credit for resolving.
The math is straightforward. When Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict — through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supply flows — prices nearly doubled. Now that Washington and Tehran agreed in mid-June to reopen the waterway, and the U.S. lifted its naval blockade last week, more than 330 vessels have transited the strait, according to maritime data firm Kpler. That sounds like progress until you realize traffic is still a fraction of the 125 ships per day that passed through before the war.
The fertilizer picture is even starker for Main Street. Before the war, about a third of globally traded urea and nearly half of seaborne sulfur — key fertilizer inputs — moved through Hormuz. Newsmax reported that just 80,000 tons of sulfur exited the strait during the entire 3½-month war, compared to 640,000 tons since the interim deal. Urea shipments post-deal hit 427,000 tons versus 275,000 tons during the conflict. Farmers already applied less fertilizer because of price spikes, raising concerns about crop yields and food costs down the line.
But the relief is fragile. Iran's military struck a container ship in the strait on Thursday. Iran's foreign ministry reiterated that "safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not guaranteed" for ships that don't seek Tehran's authorization. The U.N. International Maritime Organization paused its escort operation after the attack. President Trump has insisted there would be no tolls or charges for vessels transiting the strait — but Iran clearly has other ideas.
Analysts say the waterway needs de-mining, hundreds of stranded ships must be cleared, and shippers need confidence before normal traffic resumes. "Fertilizer volumes through the strait are not going to be at pre-conflict levels for some time," CRU chief analyst Willis Thomas told Newsmax. "Even in a best-case scenario, August is the earliest we see a significant pickup in traffic." Around 600,000 tons of urea and 300,000 to 400,000 tons of sulfur remain stuck. Gulf fertilizer plants damaged in the war need repairs.
Sarah Marlow, head of fertilizer pricing for Argus, noted that current shipments are mostly fulfilling old contracts — not fresh sales. Empty carriers aren't heading back in. Traders aren't striking new deals.
The establishment will tout falling oil prices as a victory. What they won't say: the war that sent prices soaring was their choice, and the ceasefire holding it together is one Iranian missile away from collapsing.
