The White House is blowing its best chance to end the war in Ukraine, embracing the same rosy battlefield assessments that kept Biden writing blank checks — and the same interests cashing them either way.
Hundreds of billions of your dollars have poured into Ukraine with no defined exit. Now European officials tell Axios that Washington believes Kyiv has the upper hand, so there's less urgency to launch any diplomatic push. The American Conservative reports that this mirrors almost exactly the fatal mistake of the Biden years: in late 2022, Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley urged Biden to lock in Ukraine's gains at the negotiating table while bargaining position was strong. Biden listened instead to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who counseled against peace talks while Ukraine had momentum. Milley was right. Ukraine's position worsened. Tough luck for Ukrainians — and for the American taxpayer left holding the bag.
The parallels today are stark. Ukraine has managed some dramatic strikes inside Russian territory, raising hopes in European capitals and apparently in the White House that Moscow will abandon its aims. But Ukraine's air defenses are fraying badly. The Ukrainian Air Force says a "serious shortage" of interceptor missiles meant none of the 23 ballistic missiles Russia fired at Kyiv on a recent Sunday night were shot down. The BBC confirmed the report. During a trip to Kyiv, The American Conservative's correspondent heard from Ukrainian officials and military analysts that the interceptor shortage was dire — and after one night of air attacks, word on the street was that not a single ballistic missile had been intercepted. Perhaps they were exaggerating to press for more U.S. aid. Perhaps not. Either way, the result is the same: another request for American money with no end in sight.
Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior military analyst at Defense Priorities, wrote this week that "the pendulum is likely to swing back in Moscow's favor soon enough." Russia's firepower superiority lets it climb higher on the escalation ladder, and its manpower advantage is what matters in the attritional ground war. Ukraine is losing strategically important territory right now, even as Washington insists the tide has turned.
This is the bipartisan war machine's playbook: declare progress, delay diplomacy, demand more funding, repeat. The same pattern under Biden is resurfacing under Trump. Every cycle burns through more American wealth and more Ukrainian lives while the defense contractors and lobbying class feed at the trough. No one in Washington has an incentive to end this — which is exactly why someone should.
The question isn't whether Ukraine's battlefield position will deteriorate. It will. The question is whether anyone in this administration will seize the window before it slams shut — or whether the gravy train rolls on until there's nothing left to negotiate over.
