President Trump heads back to Texas today for back-to-back rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock, stumping for Senate nominee Ken Paxton in a race deadlocked at 49-49 — and the real fight isn't just against Democrats, it's against a Republican establishment that would rather lose with a consultant's pick than win with the voters' choice.
A Fox News poll released last Wednesday shows Paxton, the state attorney general and a MAGA firebrand, tied with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico among likely voters. Last month, Talarico held a two-point edge. This is a state Trump carried by nearly 14 points just two years ago. The race shouldn't be close. It is, because the uniparty is working overtime to make it close.
NBC News reported that the pro-Democratic Lone Star Rising PAC is running ads featuring a parade of Texas Republicans trashing Paxton. The first face on screen: former Sen. John Cornyn, who tells the camera, "He's corrupt. And he's unfit for office." Cornyn, of course, is the man Paxton ousted in a divisive primary in May. The ad also features Paxton's former first assistant attorney general, Jeff Mateer, who says Paxton "was engaged in conduct that was immoral, unethical and I have a good faith belief that it was illegal." The Texas House impeached Paxton in 2023; the state Senate acquitted him on all charges. None of that stopped his own party's discarded leadership from cutting attack ads for the other side.
The enthusiasm gap should alarm every Republican paying attention. Fox News polling found 69% of Democrats say they are extremely interested in the election compared to 61% of Republicans. Party unity is also a problem: 98% of Democrats back Talarico, while only 90% of Republicans support Paxton. That 8-point defection isn't happening by accident — it's the residue of a primary where the establishment lost and refused to make peace with the result.
Trump's visit marks his fourth trip to Texas since Labor Day, following stops in Dallas, Denton, and San Antonio. He'll speak at the Port of Corpus Christi at 2 p.m. and at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center at 6 p.m., with early voting already underway and Election Day exactly one week out. Talarico is also campaigning in Lubbock tonight, holding a 7 p.m. event at Texas Tech.
The administration is blending official business with campaign travel. Secretary of State Marco Rubio — who also serves as national security adviser — plans to accompany Trump to Port Arthur to highlight a newly arrived oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude destined for Texas refineries, according to Baltimore News. Rubio has largely avoided campaign appearances since joining the administration. His presence on this trip marks a rare political outing, and it raises the usual questions about the overlap between governing and campaigning that both parties practice and both parties pretend to condemn.
Paxton has sought to tie Talarico to the national Democratic Party and portray him as too liberal for Texas. Talarico has countered by hitting Trump's handling of the economy. Fox News noted that the race is one of roughly a dozen Senate contests that will determine whether the GOP holds its slim majority.
The question for Texas voters isn't just who wins next Tuesday. It's whether a Republican Party that eats its own in Democrat-funded attack ads can survive its own civil war.
