Iran's civilian leaders are publicly pushing to end the war with the United States — and the real question is who in Washington stands to lose if peace actually breaks out.

President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf both broke toward deal-making this week, warning that Iran's economy cannot survive the current standoff. "The war must come to an end at some point," Pezeshkian said Friday, according to Iranian state media. "It is better that we demonstrate our strength and dignity today and tell the world that we have won and that we are ending the war."

Ghalibaf was even blunter about the economic reality: "No matter how much military power we have, if our people are struggling and the country lacks financial circulation and economic growth, we will not achieve progress."

The civilian push comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to unveil what Trump has dubbed "Economic D-Day" — secondary sanctions targeting not just Iranian officials who'll never set foot in America, but the foreign banks, refiners, and shipping companies that keep Tehran's oil money flowing. The message to the rest of the world: choose Iran or choose the United States. You don't get both.

That's the part that matters for ordinary Americans. For years, European governments twisted themselves into diplomatic contortions to avoid seriously sanctioning Iran, as former Ambassador Gordon Sondland wrote for Fox News. One country had an energy contract to protect, another had companies chasing Iranian business — and Iran got the commerce while Europe exercised zero leverage. The sanctions game was theater, and everyone playing it knew it.

Now Trump is forcing the issue. But here's the catch: the longer the confrontation drags on, the more the Washington enforcement apparatus expands, and the more the compliance industry profits. Meanwhile, 8 million barrels of Persian Gulf oil production remains shut in, with global supply down over 6 million barrels per day compared to last year, according to the International Energy Agency. Petroleum geologist Art Berman told Fox News that restoring those wells is far more complicated than reopening the Strait of Hormuz. "Eventually, those tankers have to be filled with oil," he warned.

That supply gap hits American wallets — not just Iranian ones.

Not everyone in Tehran wants off the treadmill. The new head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei — appointed this month as part of a hardline shuffle — threatened "seismic" retaliation against any neighbor that joins the new sanctions push. He warned Iran would target alternative oil-shipping routes out of the Persian Gulf if neighbors join what he called the economic war against Iran.

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who hasn't been seen publicly since the war began, has elevated hardliners who favor resuming war over cutting another deal — even as Pezeshkian claimed the Supreme Leader himself acknowledged Iran must move beyond "neither war nor peace." AP framed Pezeshkian as "defending" the MOU; the New York Post framed it as a break with hardliners. The split is real either way.

The memorandum of understanding Trump signed in June set a 60-day deadline for ending the war and reaching an accord on Iran's nuclear program. That deadline passed last week with no resolution and no compromise on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels of oil daily moved through the waterway. The administration now claims 8 to 9 million barrels are getting through.

Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is heading to Tehran on Monday to mediate. Trump's position remains unchanged: "They would love to make a deal, but they're not ready to make the right deal."

The open question is whether the right deal exists — or whether the machinery of permanent confrontation has grown too profitable to let it happen.