Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again Saturday, and every gallon of gas you pump this week will carry the price tag of Washington's latest foreign policy disaster.
The closure came hours after Israel struck Lebanon, killing 16 people, in violation of a ceasefire that was supposed to take effect Friday at 4 p.m. local time. Iran says the U.S. broke its word by failing to restrain Israel. Now the waterway that carries 20% of the world's oil, per the BBC, is effectively shut — not by naval blockade, but by a risk premium that makes insurance unaffordable and slows traffic to a trickle. Before this war, roughly 120 ships transited daily. Thursday saw 25, according to AXS Marine data cited by HotAir. The same establishment that engineered this mess will demand military intervention to reopen it. The America-first answer is energy independence and zero dollars to foreign regimes.
The mechanics matter. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps warned mariners: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized." As HotAir correctly explained, "closure" doesn't mean Iran is physically interdicting ships — it means every vessel that tries to transit faces heightened risk, driving up insurance costs and creating economic pressure. CENTCOM claimed 55 merchant ships transited Saturday and safe passage "remained intact," though the BBC noted it was "not clear whether Centcom was referring to before or after Tehran's announcement."
The trigger: Israel launched strikes on Nabatieh and surrounding villages in southern Lebanon just hours after the ceasefire took effect. Lebanese Civil Defense reported 16 killed and 12 wounded. Israel claimed Hezbollah fired more than 50 projectiles at Israeli forces overnight. Hezbollah accused Israel of violating the ceasefire first. A family of four — father, mother, two children — was killed Saturday in the town of Barich, according to Lebanese state media reported by the BBC.
The deal that collapsed: On Wednesday, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding. The first clause, per the BBC, called for "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon." Israel immediately said it had no intention of withdrawing from Lebanon and insisted its conflict with Hezbollah was "separate from the war on Iran" — a distinction Tehran does not accept and Washington apparently never enforced.
Benjamin Friedman of Defense Priorities told the Daily Caller: "Israel wants to attack Hezbollah, and they also are happy to screw up the ceasefire. They pushed us into the war, and they want us to continue it, even if it tanks the global economy." His prescription cuts against bipartisan orthodoxy: "We should threaten to cut off some aid and military support for Israel to get [it] to abide by the ceasefire, and carry out our threat if they don't."
A U.S. intelligence assessment cited by the New York Times and reported by Politico.eu concluded Israel is likely to continue operations against Hezbollah as Prime Minister Netanyahu faces domestic pressure.
This is what happens when Washington cuts deals that hand leverage to foreign regimes while refusing to enforce terms on allies. The Iran deal reopened Hormuz — but Washington had no mechanism to compel Israeli compliance with the ceasefire clause it promised. Now Iran has reclaimed its chokepoint, and the same foreign policy class that designed this arrangement will insist the answer is American firepower.
Vice President JD Vance says he expects to travel to Switzerland "in the next couple of days" for more talks. The question isn't whether diplomats will negotiate — it's whether anyone in Washington will level with the public: we paid for this leverage, we gave it away, and every plan to get it back costs American blood or American treasure. Energy independence doesn't require a trip to the Alps.
