Establishment outlets are once again declaring Donald Trump politically finished—while simultaneously floating an expanded war with Iran that a foreign leader needs for his own political survival.
The New Yorker and The Guardian published complementary narratives this week: one insisting the midterms will finally break Trump's grip on the GOP, the other revealing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is lobbying Trump to restart bombing Iran after Election Day. The playbook is familiar—predict Trump's demise to demoralize populist voters, then push foreign entanglements that drain American blood and treasure to serve someone else's interests.
The New Yorker, owned by Condé Nast, reports that "Political Washington—the Ds, most of the Rs, the polling wonks, the press—believes this time is different for Trump." The magazine cites "the campaign obsessives in the capital," who "really think that this may finally be the Big One." This is the same establishment consensus that has declared Trump finished after Access Hollywood, the Mueller probe, both impeachments, and January 6—every prediction wrong, every obituary premature.
Meanwhile, The Guardian reports that "officials leaked plans for a new round of joint US-Israeli military strikes" targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and civilian infrastructure. The timing is calculated: Trump was "reluctant to restart the war before the elections—fearing an even bigger loss for Republicans." Once the votes are counted, the restraint evaporates.
The foreign lobbying driving this war is barely concealed. The Guardian's Mohamad Bazzi reports that "Netanyahu spent months persuading Trump to join Israel in a war aimed at regime-change in Tehran. Netanyahu is at it again, urging Trump in a phone call on Saturday to restart the bombing soon after the midterms." The reason? "Netanyahu wants a renewed war with Iran as he fights for his political survival, after his rightwing governing coalition failed to secure a majority in Israel's parliamentary elections last week." American bombs, American dollars, American lives—all to rescue a foreign leader's coalition politics.
A diplomatic off-ramp exists but gets buried beneath the war drumbeat. The Guardian reports that Qatari negotiators secured Iranian offers to "reopen the strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington agrees to lift a blockade on Iran's ports and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets." A prior interim agreement collapsed. Trump has vacillated between negotiations and threats, telling the UN General Assembly in September: "Do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly…Do I drive them into hell?"
Neither outlet addresses the fundamental question: why should Americans finance or fight a war that Netanyahu needs because he can't win an election in his own country? The New Yorker frames Trump as "himself the crisis." The Guardian frames the war as Trump's personal quagmire. Neither examines how the permanent Washington class and its media appendages profit from perpetual conflict—through defense contracts, access journalism, and the revolving door between government and the think-tank industry selling these interventions.
The establishment has declared Trump finished dozens of times since 2015. They've never been right. The open question is whether they'll get their expanded war anyway—regardless of what voters decide.
