Wall Street is paralyzed ahead of Wednesday's Consumer Price Index report, but whatever number the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out, it won't match what you're paying at the pump or the grocery checkout — and Iran just made sure of that.

U.S. stocks fell for a second straight day Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow each slipping 0.3% and the Nasdaq dropping 0.6%. Markets Insider framed the session as a quiet pre-data pause with futures barely ticking up in after-hours trading. Fortune reported the actual catalyst: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut, bouncing Brent crude above $88 per barrel and dragging tech shares down while energy and industrial stocks climbed.

That oil spike has markets pricing a nearly 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, according to Bloomberg data compiled by Fortune. So the same central bank that told you inflation was "transitory" is now preparing to hike again — because a foreign chokepoint drove up energy costs, not because your paycheck got bigger.

Economists expect July CPI to show just a 0.1% monthly rise after a 0.4% decline in June, per a Bloomberg survey. Bloomberg Economics projects core CPI could fall to its lowest year-over-year reading since March 2021, with energy subtracting 11 basis points from the headline number. That's the narrative Wall Street wants: inflation easing, the Fed staying patient, and earnings growth justifying bloated valuations. Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, spelled it out: "Investors are increasingly pricing a scenario in which inflation continues to ease, the Fed remains patient and earnings growth justifies elevated valuations."

But the analysts who actually look at what's hitting households tell a different story. Douglas Beath, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, warns that "elevated refined energy product prices and some increasing stickiness in core services — especially rents and medical care — make a less sanguine near-term inflation outlook." Rents. Medical care. Energy. The things you can't cut from your budget. Citigroup's Andrew Hollenhorst expects cooling outside of energy, but energy is exactly the category a Hormuz shutdown supercharges.

Main street is sending mixed signals. The National Federation of Independent Business said Tuesday that small business optimism hit its highest level in a year in July, with the net share of firms planning to add jobs reaching the highest since October 2022. Small businesses also reported easing inflation concerns. But existing home sales fell to a three-month low as elevated prices and mortgage rates continue to lock buyers out — a direct hit to the biggest wealth-building tool most Americans have.

Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors shows bears have outnumbered bulls in 20 of the past 25 weeks — a streak of skepticism last seen after Trump's global tariff rollout. The retail investor isn't buying the soft-landing story.

Wednesday's CPI will move markets for a day. What it won't do is capture the cumulative crush of three years of inflation on a paycheck that hasn't kept pace — or the fact that a foreign power can shut a waterway and immediately put a rate hike on your mortgage back on the table.