German voters head to the polls Sunday in two state elections that could further crater Chancellor Friedrich Merz's grip on power, as the Alternative for Germany party continues its march from fringe movement to the country's most popular political force — a citizen revolt against open borders that Washington's ruling class would do well to study.

Just two weeks ago, the AfD fell just short of an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, a result Reuters notes "sent shock waves through Europe." Now Merz — elected only 16 months ago on promises to revive Germany's stagnant economy — faces the prospect of his Christian Democratic Union party getting wiped out entirely in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where polls put the CDU at a humiliating 6 percent, barely clearing the 5 percent threshold to stay in the state parliament.

Merz's approval ratings have cratered to between 10 and 14 percent, depending on the poll. He cancelled a planned speech at the UN General Assembly this week, with a government official telling The Guardian "his presence is required in Berlin" after the elections. He's scheduled a crisis meeting of his own party.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the real contest is between the SPD's state premier Manuela Schwesig and the AfD's Leif-Erik Holm, with the parties virtually tied at 37 and 36 percent respectively, according to a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll cited by Reuters. The AfD, which Reuters reports wants to "take tough action to deport foreigners with no right to stay in Germany, restore energy ties with Russia and quit the euro," has in a decade gone from eurosceptic curiosity to the dominant force in eastern Germany.

In Berlin, the story is different but no less dire for the establishment. The CDU is in a tight race with the far-left Die Linke, which The Guardian reports has "called for expropriation of corporate landlords" amid a housing crisis where advertised rents have nearly doubled since 2014. The AfD is running strong in third or fourth place even in the cosmopolitan capital.

The establishment's response? Double down on the "firewall" — the agreement among all mainstream parties to refuse coalition agreements with the AfD, no matter how many voters choose it. Reuters reports this strategy is now facing "fresh questions." The Guardian framed the party as "anti-immigration, pro-Kremlin" and warned it could become "the first far-right force to run a German state since the Nazi period." Al Jazeera, for its part, headlined its recommended stories "AfD is rising, but it can still be stopped."

What none of the outlets dwell on is the core issue driving voters: Germans are choosing the AfD because their government let in millions of migrants and can't deliver basic economic competence. Merz told an industry group, "We as a government were elected for four years... And I want to use these four years to lead the country out of this difficult period." But his coalition with the Social Democrats has produced unpopular pension, tax, and healthcare reforms, soaring energy costs, and a string of gaffes. On Friday, he scrambled to announce a relief package including tax cuts on gas and diesel.

Germany's establishment parties can maintain their firewall for now. But they're governing against the will of their own people to keep a party out of power that keeps winning elections. The question for Americans: how long before voters here get the same chance to reject what their rulers have imposed?