Ken Paxton holds a razor-thin 1.25-point lead over Democrat James Talarico in the Texas Senate race — and the establishment money machine is just getting warmed up. Four independent polls taken between June 1 and 21 show Paxton at 45.75% and Talarico at 44.5%, according to CBS News, meaning the populist who crushed the GOP's Washington-backed incumbent now faces an even better-funded opponent with a manufactured moderate makeover.
The stakes are straightforward: if Paxton loses, Democrats flip a Senate seat they haven't won since 1988 and prove that cash and rebranding can beat a candidate who sues Big Pharma, Big Tech, and sanctuary cities on behalf of ordinary Texans.
Talarico has raised $11 million through ActBlue in a single month, Paxton told the Daily Caller. Paxton's team is suspicious of where that money originates, given reporting on ActBlue's collapsed compliance operation and illicit foreign donations flowing through the platform. The fundraising gap is real: Paxton has had just five months to raise money as the nominee after the prolonged primary, compared to Talarico's eight.
But being outspent is familiar territory. Paxton defeated former Senator John Cornyn in a May runoff despite being outspent roughly 15-to-1 in what the Daily Caller described as a $120 million race, including an onslaught of outside money from Cornyn's Washington network. President Trump endorsed Paxton one week before that runoff, breaking with Senate Republican leaders who had urged him to back Cornyn because they believed the incumbent would have an easier time defeating Talarico.
Now Talarico is executing a classic Washington play: run left in the primary, rebrand center for the general. He has recently come out against child sex changes and now describes himself as a
