Ken Paxton already beat the establishment. Now the only question is whether Texas Republicans close ranks — or let the consultant class hand a Senate seat to a Democrat.
A Fox News poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Paxton 51-48 among registered voters, with the gap widening to 6 points among the most motivated voters. Fox frames the race as a story of "GOP divisions." Look closer: 89% of Republicans are already behind Paxton. The so-called division is the donor class that backed 22-year incumbent John Cornyn and refuses to accept that primary voters chose someone else.
Paxton dominated the GOP primary. But according to Fox's polling, that contest "left scars." A quarter of non-MAGA Republicans say they're crossing over to Talarico. Republican pollster Daron Shaw says Paxton has "considerable work to do" tying Talarico to the Democratic Party's left flank.
The establishment's primary-season character attacks are still doing damage. Fifty-nine percent of Texas voters say they're concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve — including 36% of Republicans. That's the residue of millions in consultant spending calling Paxton corrupt. More voters worry about Paxton's character than about Talarico being too extreme, by a 12-point margin.
Trump's brand has also taken a hit in the state he won by 14 points. His favorability has flipped from 55% positive in 2024 to a 9-point net negative today.
The issues driving voters are kitchen-table concerns. Nearly four in 10 Texas voters say inflation is their top issue — double the number citing immigration in a border state. By more than 2-to-1, voters say they're falling behind financially rather than getting ahead.
Michigan offers a parallel warning about what happens when a party's activist base wins a primary. Breitbart reports that socialist Abdul El-Sayed leads establishment Democrat Haley Stevens by 15 points in Tuesday's Senate primary, with voters under 50 breaking for El-Sayed by a staggering 42 points. But El-Sayed trails likely Republican nominee Mike Rogers by 10 points in the general election matchup, while Stevens runs even. Breitbart notes El-Sayed backs socialized medicine, open borders, abolishing ICE, and property confiscation — and has refused to affirm Israel's right to exist. The progressive base gets its candidate; the GOP may get a Senate seat.
The dynamic cuts both ways. In Texas, the populist already won his primary. In Michigan, the populist is about to win hers. In both states, the general election will answer the same question: does the base's choice cost the win, or does the establishment's caution cost the movement?
The consultant class in Texas has a choice: fall in line behind the candidate Republican voters picked, or keep nursing grudges and deliver a Senate seat to the other side.
