Oregon voters are on the verge of rejecting four decades of one-party rule, with a new poll showing Republican Christine Drazan edging ahead of Democrat Gov. Tina Kotek — a signal that even the deepest-blue corners of the country have had enough of progressive governance that let cities decay while lecturing the rest of America.
No Republican has won Oregon's governorship since Victor Atiyeh in 1982. That 40-year losing streak may be about to break. A DHM Research poll conducted September 11 for Grow Oregon, a business-backed group, surveyed 600 likely voters and found Drazan leading Kotek 45% to 43% — within the four-point margin of error, but the direction is unmistakable. Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith takes 4%, and 13% remain undecided.
The numbers behind the horserace tell the real story. Fifty-nine percent of voters disapprove of Kotek's job performance. Fifty-eight percent say Oregon is headed in the wrong direction. Affordability tops voter concerns at 87%, followed by K-12 education at 85%, housing affordability at 78%, taxes and homelessness each at 77%, and crime at 73%.
"Four years ago, Tina Kotek made big promises on homelessness, housing, education, and affordability, but today, Oregonians are paying more, getting less, and watching the same problems get worse," Drazan campaign strategist Trey Rosser said, according to Breitbart.
Kotek's campaign is leaning on a familiar playbook: tie the Republican to Donald Trump. "Christine Drazan is ready to open the door to Trump's agenda, and Gov. Kotek is fighting every day to protect Oregonians from federal overreach and harm," Kotek campaign spokesman Federico Araujo said. The campaign also pointed to undecided voters as reason for confidence.
Money favors the incumbent. Kotek has raised nearly $12 million since the beginning of last year and has $8.2 million on hand, per state campaign finance filings. Drazan has raised $9.4 million but has just $2.4 million available after a competitive Republican primary.
This isn't Drazan's first run. She led in some 2022 polls before Kotek pulled ahead late, winning 47% to 43.5% while unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson siphoned nearly 9%. The dynamic is different this time.
And Oregon isn't alone. In California, Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton — who has Trump's endorsement — is running against Democrat Xavier Becerra. Hilton made a calculated pledge on "Pod Save America" this week, saying he would appoint a Democrat to fill any U.S. Senate vacancy involving Sens. Alex Padilla or Adam Schiff. "I just think you've got to honor the vote that people took," Hilton said, according to the New York Post. It's a sign that GOP candidates in deep-blue states are reading the room: voters want results, not partisan warfare.
The candidates are scheduled to debate October 1 at the University of Oregon. Election Day is November 3.
After forty years of Democratic governors presiding over rising crime, unaffordable housing, and tent cities from Portland to Eugene, have Oregon voters finally reached their breaking point — or will the establishment machine and its $8 million war chest hold the line one more time?
