Republicans could lose both the House and Senate in November — and if they do, they'll have earned it by squandering the majority working Americans handed them.
The math is brutal. In the House, Republicans hold a majority so narrow that losing a handful of seats costs them control. Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger told MS NOW she expects Democrats will flip "no fewer than two" GOP seats, and possibly five. In the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats need four pickups — and Byron York reports six Republican seats are now in genuine jeopardy.
York's analysis lays out five structural forces working against the GOP: the razor-thin House majority, Trump's low approval rating especially on the economy, generic ballot polling favoring Democrats, the Iran/Mideast war creating uncertainty, and historical precedent that the party holding the White House loses House seats in midterms.
On the Senate side, the map has deteriorated fast. North Carolina, where Thom Tillis is retiring, "seems gone," York writes. Iowa (Joni Ernst retiring), Ohio (appointed Sen. Jon Husted), Maine (Susan Collins), and Alaska (Dan Sullivan) are all in play. In Texas, John Cornyn lost his primary to Ken Paxton, and now Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico — a candidate York calls "terrible," but Paxton carries his own baggage.
The Democratic bright side for Republicans is narrow: Michigan, where Democrats are nominating Abdul El-Sayed, described as a "DSA-style progressive" who could struggle in a general election to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters. New Hampshire, where Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, leans Democratic for now.
Meanwhile, House Republicans are bleeding from self-inflicted wounds. Newsweek reports three GOP incumbents are mired in scandals that could tip competitive races. Rep. Chuck Edwards of North Carolina withdrew from his race after the House Ethics Committee recommended censure for his conduct toward young female staffers. Rep. Max Miller of Ohio faces domestic abuse allegations from his ex-wife — which he denies — and mounting calls to exit the race. Rep. Cory Mills of Florida is under House Ethics investigation for financial and sexual misconduct, and two Florida colleagues have endorsed his primary opponent.
A Syracuse University political scientist told Newsweek that scandals suppress the base: they "dampen a party's most active members from volunteering on a campaign, or a regular voter from voting at all." With margins this tight, depressed turnout is lethal.
But here's what the establishment coverage won't tell you: York himself notes that beyond the SAVE America Act — which won't pass this year — Trump "doesn't really have a legislative agenda to kill." That's not a Democratic problem. That's a Republican failure. The GOP has had the House, the Senate, and the White House, and the legislative cupboard is bare.
The DCCC's Viet Shelton told Newsweek that voters are "pissed over higher costs" and "Republicans' broken promises." He's a partisan, but he's not wrong about the broken promises. Both parties have spent years telling working Americans they'll fight for them and then delivering for the lobbying class instead.
If Republicans lose both chambers, the fear-mongering about Democratic impeachment and nominee-blocking will be loud. York notes a third Trump impeachment would have a "been-there-done-that quality," and losing the Senate would mean Democrats could freeze judicial and administrative confirmations cold. That matters. But it's also a consequence of a party that had power and chose complacency.
The question for November isn't whether Democrats will be worse — it's whether Republicans have given voters any reason to show up and stop them.
