Arizona Republicans vote Tuesday on who will take on Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs — the most endangered Democrat governor in the country — and the choice boils down to whether voters want a fighter who will challenge federal overreach or a cautious legislator who plays nice with the establishment.
Rep. Andy Biggs, armed with Donald Trump's endorsement and the grassroots turnout machine of Turning Point Action, faces Rep. David Schweikert in a primary that exposes the GOP's eternal fault line: populism versus the consultant class.
Biggs built his name as House Freedom Caucus chair, voting against certifying Arizona's Electoral College votes after January 6 and assisting Trump's effort to challenge the 2020 result. He's backed by Turning Point Action, Charlie Kirk's organization headquartered in the state, and MAGA figures like Lauren Boebert and Matt Gaetz. POLITICO framed him as a "hardliner" in the mold of candidates who "lost winnable races in 2022 after focusing on conspiracies about the 2020 election." The New Yorker labeled him a "prominent election denier" and noted the January 6 committee investigated him — though Biggs has denied any involvement in organizing the Capitol riot.
Schweikert has walked what the AP called "a tightrope with Trump, carefully keeping his distance without antagonizing him." His pitch: he can win swing voters because he's done it before in a competitive House district. He's criticized Biggs for ties to the Proud Boys, according to the New Yorker. But that distance from the MAGA base has left him isolated from the voters who actually show up in primaries.
Businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who had support from the moderate wing, dropped out in February — clearing Biggs' path.
Meanwhile, Hobbs runs unopposed on the Democratic side. The AP notes she's considered the most endangered Democratic governor in the country this cycle. The establishment press won't say why, but Arizonans living under her administration can point to the border crisis, inflation, and a governor who refuses to confront federal failures that devastate working families.
Down ballot, the 1st Congressional District — where Trump won by just three points — features its own establishment-versus-grassroots clash. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee controversially backed Marlene Galán-Woods, a former Republican and TV anchor whose late husband Grant Woods was a vocal Trump critic. Her opponent Amish Shah, an emergency room doctor and the 2024 nominee who lost narrowly, is running as the anti-establishment pick. POLITICO notes the race is tight and could be "the latest example of an establishment-backed candidate losing a Democratic primary." On the GOP side, Trump-endorsed former NFL kicker Jay Feely faces hardline former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik — though Feely doesn't even live in the district, originally running elsewhere until Trump endorsed a rival there.
In the 5th District, former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb leads to replace Biggs, with Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson's backing. But the Arizona Republic published allegations of sexual impropriety, and a businessman has vastly outspent him hammering the issue. Lamb denies the accusations; the Pinal County attorney cleared him of criminal wrongdoing.
The question Tuesday is whether Arizona Republicans want someone who will fight the establishment or someone who will accommodate it. Hobbs is vulnerable. Whether the GOP nominates a candidate who can capitalize on that vulnerability is another matter entirely.
