A federal appeals court ruled Monday that Missouri must use new Republican-drawn congressional districts this November — a decision that almost certainly won't change a single ballot, since the U.S. Supreme Court has already blocked the map twice and absentee votes are already being cast.

The 8th Circuit Court of Appeals decision is the latest volley in a legal war over whether Missouri will have six Republican and two Democratic House seats, or seven Republican and one. For ordinary Missourians, the stakes are straightforward: which map determines their representation, and whether their own referendum vote on the matter will ever be counted.

The three-judge panel — all Republican appointees, including two Trump picks — ruled that using the prior 2022 map in November "violates the Constitution" and that "only use of the 2025 map complies with the Constitution and federal law," according to the unsigned ruling reported by NBC News.

But the court delayed its own order for a week to allow appeal, and the Supreme Court has already intervened twice to block the new map. Missouri is proceeding with the 2022 districts. Local election officials have sent absentee ballots to overseas and military voters under those boundaries, and state law requires absentee ballots available to all voters by Tuesday.

NBC News framed the case as Republicans seeking to "eliminate one of the state's two Democratic House districts," specifically targeting Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. The Guardian reported the legal timeline more neutrally, noting the procedural back-and-forth without that emphasis.

The fight started when opponents gathered enough signatures to put the new map before voters as a November referendum. Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins, a Republican, delayed a decision on including the measure before rejecting it outright, arguing redistricting plans aren't subject to voter approval. The Missouri Supreme Court held Hoskins in contempt for failing to comply with its ruling that the 2025 map should be stayed pending the referendum.

Richard von Glahn, executive director of People Not Politicians, the group challenging the map, called the latest ruling a waste. "Ballots have been printed, and Missourians have already voted. Thousands more will vote before this order seeks to take effect," he said in a statement. "Officials should stop wasting taxpayers' money on pointless legal action and instead focus on administering our elections."

Monday's decision upheld a prior ruling by U.S. District Judge Stephen Clark, who said the new map must be used despite the Missouri Supreme Court's contrary conclusion. The U.S. Supreme Court put Clark's ruling on hold Sept. 10, apparently settling the matter — until now.

The real question isn't whether this ruling takes effect before November. It almost certainly won't. The question is what comes after — when the referendum goes before voters, and the courts must decide whether the people of Missouri or the legislature gets the final word on their own congressional districts.