Pentagon: China Can't Invade Taiwan Yet. So Why Are You Paying?

The Pentagon now admits China likely can't invade Taiwan before 2028, but the real question the establishment press refuses to ask is why American taxpayers are still on the hook for defending an island 7,000 miles away while our own borders and communities crumble.

A new U.S. assessment reported by International Business Times reveals Beijing’s military is too bogged down by its own corruption purges to launch a massively complicated amphibious invasion anytime soon. Yet the defense industry and foreign policy lobbyists continue to demand a blank check for the Pacific, treating American wealth as a global ATM.

U.S. officials say Chinese President Xi Jinping’s longstanding 2027 directive for his military to be capable of taking Taiwan by force is a readiness goal, not a scheduled invasion date. In reality, Xi's sweeping anti-corruption campaign has disrupted the People's Liberation Army, with investigations and expulsions reaching senior ranks and delaying preparedness. The U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment back in March already noted Beijing prefers gaining control of the island without military force.

Beijing is also playing the long game by waiting to see if Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election produces a government more receptive to closer relations. If President Lai Ching-te and his Democratic Progressive Party secure a fourth consecutive term, U.S. officials believe the possibility of Chinese military action could increase after 2028.

But the most telling detail buried in the report is how Beijing views American politics. Three sources told Reuters that China is factoring the 2028 U.S. election into its calculations, specifically noting "growing American resistance to overseas military involvement." Translation: the American people are tired of fighting other nations' wars, and our adversaries know it. Another official tried to spin that Beijing sees Democrats and Republicans as "broadly aligned on Taiwan," but the populist fatigue is impossible to ignore.

President Donald Trump has played down the possibility of an invasion, noting last year that Xi told him China would not attack Taiwan while Trump was in office.

Meanwhile, Taiwan's presidential office spokesperson Karen Kuo told Reuters the island will continue "cooperating with democratic partners, including the United States" and strengthening its defenses. That cooperation means buying American weapons. The U.S. remains Taiwan’s most important weapons supplier, which means every commitment Washington makes to the Pacific is a direct payday for the defense lobby. Follow the money: the push to arm Taiwan isn't just about deterring Beijing; it's about keeping the contractor cash flowing while Americans get stuck with the bill and the risk.

If China isn't ready to invade and the American people don't want another war, the only question left is why Washington is still writing blank checks for Taipei.