America's latest Middle East war is working exactly as the bipartisan war machine designed it: Big Oil is posting historic profits while working families bleed at the pump and small businesses choke on fuel costs they can't absorb.
The war with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil production must travel, according to Europe Says. Iran throttled the waterway in response to U.S.-Israeli attacks. The result: Brent crude hit $109 a barrel Monday, up nearly 80% from last October. Gasoline prices are up 40% over the past year, and diesel sits near a record high.
The people writing the checks in Washington always say these wars are about security. Follow the money instead. ExxonMobil doubled its second-quarter profits to $14.5 billion. Chevron more than quadrupled its profits to $12.1 billion. ExxonMobil now expects higher refining margins to deliver another $4.5 billion profit boost in the third quarter.
Patrick Pouyanné, head of French energy giant TotalEnergies, was blunt about what the disruption means for his industry: "I prefer the world of disruption to the peaceful world." His company announced it expects cash flow to reach "exceptional levels" from refining profits.
Jeff Colgan, who directs the Climate Solutions Lab at Brown University, put it plainly: "The profits for Big Oil are huge, and they are coming straight out of the pockets of American consumers at a time when many people are feeling the pinch." His lab estimates the typical American household has paid an extra $585 for gasoline since the war started, plus another $474 in diesel-driven costs passed through to consumer goods.
HuffPost framed the conflict as "Trump's war of choice" and highlighted the political risk to Republicans as inflation outpaces wage growth for the sixth straight month. But the story is bigger than one party's electoral prospects. Small supply chain businesses — already battered by tariffs and stubborn inflation — are now absorbing fuel spikes that Europe Says reports will force them to either pass costs to stretched consumers or freeze hiring and investment.
The agriculture sector runs on diesel-powered machinery and fertilizer tied to petroleum prices. Long-haul trucking feels the hit immediately. Small manufacturers that use oil and gas directly in production or rely on Gulf-state exports of aluminum, steel, and plastic face margin compression with no end in sight.
Houthi attacks on Saudi refineries and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have compounded the crunch, but the Strait of Hormuz closure is the anchor drag on global supply. As Europe Says noted, Gulf producers are shutting down production that "cannot be quickly reversed," meaning disruption will last weeks or months regardless of how the fighting ends.
No one in Washington has defined the American interest here, named the cost, or explained the exit. Meanwhile, the same corporate interests that always profit from Middle East intervention are profiting again — and the bill goes to the truck driver, the farmer, and the family trying to fill a tank.
