Wall Street is spinning theories about a Tesla-SpaceX merger that one prominent investor calls "absurd" — but the real story is whether the financial establishment can even comprehend what Elon Musk is building.
The merger chatter exposes a deeper problem: traditional analysts evaluate companies like Tesla and SpaceX through old metrics of dilution and quarterly earnings, while pro-innovation Americans see robotaxi networks and commercial space infrastructure as the backbone of a future Washington never built and the Beltway still can't grasp.
Gary Black, a Tesla bull turned cautious, took to X on Thursday to dismiss the theory that Musk is deliberately slowing Tesla's robotaxi ramp so SpaceX could acquire the automaker at a discount. The argument — that "Elon is holding back TSLA's robotaxi scale-up so $SPCX can buy $TSLA at a relatively cheap valuation" — Black called "absurd," pointing to the "massive dilution" and "governance issues" such a deal would trigger.
Black's caution runs deeper than merger mechanics. "We remain cautious on $TSLA due to declining earnings estimates, the coming commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a seemingly extended valuation," he wrote. Translation: the Street still thinks autonomy is a commodity, not a revolution.
Tesla shares were down 1.31% to $376.60 in premarket trading Thursday. The stock action underscores the disconnect — traders are pricing in old-auto risk while the company is building an autonomous transport network that could restructure American mobility.
Meanwhile, Tesla faces the usual regulatory headwinds. A crash in Texas where the driver claimed Autopilot was engaged — something Musk denies — has drawn NHTSA and NTSB scrutiny. The federal safety apparatus remains more interested in probing Tesla than in understanding what unsupervised autonomy could mean for freeing Americans from car dependency.
The cultural establishment is having its own Musk moment. Actor John C. Reilly, appearing on Ilana Glazer's podcast, took aim at Musk's concept of "civilizational suicidal empathy" — the idea that empathy has been weaponized to undermine Western societies. Musk made the original comments on Joe Rogan's podcast in March 2025, calling empathy "the fundamental weakness of Western civilization" and arguing it's being exploited.
"Empathy is not a trap. Empathy is a superpower," Reilly countered. "It's what makes human beings exceptional." HuffPost framed the rebuttal as a righteous takedown. The framing difference matters: one side sees empathy as an unalloyed good, the other sees it as a lever for institutional control. Both miss that Musk's project — robotaxi or Mars — isn't about sentiment. It's about building systems that work.
Wall Street sees dilution. Hollywood sees an empathy debate. Meanwhile, Musk is building the physical infrastructure — autonomous transport, orbital delivery, satellite networks — that the American government once promised and never delivered. The question isn't whether a merger makes sense on a spreadsheet. The question is whether anyone in the establishment has the vision to see what's already being built.
