President Trump's super PAC is dropping $10 million on a Texas Senate race that should be a layup — because years of bipartisan failure on the border have made a once-safe Republican seat a toss-up.
A Saturday Federal Election Commission filing shows MAGA Inc. spending $5 million on ads backing Attorney General Ken Paxton and $5 million attacking his Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico. This is the super PAC's first major general election outlay, and it's going to hold Texas. Texas — where no Democrat has won a Senate race since 1988. The Cook Political Report and Fox News now rate the seat a toss-up.
How did we get here? CNBC and Fortune both frame the race's competitiveness as a product of "public disapproval of Trump over the economy and the Iran war." What they bury: the decades-long demographic transformation of Texas, fueled by legal and illegal immigration that the GOP establishment tolerated — and at times cheerled — while it eroded the Republican base. Talarico, a 37-year-old state representative, is competitive not because of his policy chops but because the electorate has been remade.
Trump endorsed Paxton, who ousted incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a May primary runoff. Cornyn was exactly the kind of border-security-talk, amnesty-action Republican who helped create this mess. Nearly $130 million was burned on advertising in that primary alone, according to The Mercury News. Now Paxton is struggling to raise money from donors still nursing grudges from that bruising fight.
The MAGA Inc. ads hit Talarico on taxes, branding him "High Tax Talarico" and claiming he wants broad tax hikes while Paxton would deliver breaks for first-time homebuyers and families. Talarico's camp pushed back. "Billionaire-backed dark money groups are lying about James Talarico because they're scared of the people-powered movement we're building," spokesperson JT Ennis said. He noted Talarico voted for the largest property tax cut in Texas history.
Trump, for his part, acknowledged Paxton's retail weaknesses. "You might not like the way he looks, you might not love his look, you might not love his television interviews, but he was the best attorney general in the country, perhaps," Trump said at a White House event last week. Paxton shrugged it off on Fox News: "Texas is a rather casual place in the summer and it's hot."
The bigger picture: MAGA Inc. sits on at least $400 million, and Trump says he'll deploy $400 million to $500 million this cycle. "This is my money," Trump told reporters Friday, distinguishing it from RNC funds. He even mused about holding some back for 2028 — though he's constitutionally barred from a third term.
The establishment press won't say it plainly, so we will: Trump is spending $10 million in Texas because the Republican Party's coalition is shrinking where it matters most. Mass immigration — legal and illegal — is remaking the electorate, and no amount of ad spending reverses that math. The question isn't whether Paxton can hold Texas this November. It's whether any Republican can hold it in six years if the border stays open.
