Polls are closing across the country tonight in the 2026 midterms, and prediction markets put Democrats at a 94% chance of taking the House and 76% for the Senate — but the real question isn't which party's consultants get to celebrate, it's whether anyone in Washington will finally answer for inflation, the open border, and rising crime.

All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governor's races are on the ballot. Republicans are defending narrow majorities in both chambers with two years left in Trump's second term. The Guardian framed the night as a "referendum on Trump's second term." Strip that narrative away and what's left is simpler: Americans deciding whether the people who failed them on basic governance keep their jobs.

The historical pattern is brutal for the party in power — midterms almost always deliver losses. Both parties spent the cycle fighting over redistricting: Republicans in states like Texas and Florida, Democrats in California and Virginia, per The Post Millennial. The map was drawn to protect incumbents. The question is whether voters care about the lines Washington drew for itself.

The Money Race

Follow the dollars. The Texas Senate race alone — Democrat James Talarico vs. Republican AG Ken Paxton — has burned through $573.2 million in ad spending, making it the most expensive non-presidential race in American history, according to KSAT as cited by The Post Millennial. That's over half a billion for one Senate seat. Someone's paying, and it isn't the candidates.

Key Senate Battlegrounds

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 5.3 points in polling averages, though The Post Millennial notes that his primary rival Haley Stevens just endorsed Rogers Monday — she captured nearly half the Democratic primary vote, so that split could matter.

In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinton are dead even. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton — a pastor who has defended drag story hour for children, per The Post Millennial — leads incumbent Roger Marshall by just over 4 points in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century.

In Maine, progressive Troy Jackson is trying to unseat five-term Republican Susan Collins. In Georgia, first-term Democrat Jon Ossoff is holding off Trump-endorsed Rep. Mike Collins. In New Hampshire, former GOP Sen. John Sununu is challenging Rep. Chris Pappas for an open seat in a race The Guardian says has Democrats "increasingly concerned."

South Carolina's Darline Graham — appointed to fill the seat of her late brother Lindsey Graham — faces Democrat Annie Andrews.

The President Weighs In

Trump spent election night posting complaints about Fox News on Truth Social: "FoxNews Ratings are way down (27%!) because they're spending too much time covering the Trump Deranged Dumocrats!" He told Kansas rallygoers Sunday the GOP would keep both chambers. But The Guardian reports his approval rating sank to 36% last month.

Kalshi's prediction markets, which were 78% accurate in 2024, see a Democratic House as nearly certain tonight. If that holds, the next two years of Trump's agenda hit a wall — and both parties will have to explain to working Americans why nothing gets done while the spending keeps climbing.