Republican businessman Anthony Constantino is threatening to sue the pollster behind a survey showing him trailing a Democrat in a district Trump won by more than 20 points — and he says the numbers were manufactured to boost Democratic fundraising, not reflect reality.

The News Channel 13/Survey USA poll has Constantino down 43-39 to dairy farmer Blake Gendebien in Elise Stefanik's old upstate New York seat. The Cook Political Report rates the district with a 10-point Republican advantage. Trump carried it by more than 20 points in 2024. Stefanik won her sixth term 62-38. If this poll were accurate, it would represent a total Republican collapse in one of the reddest districts in the Northeast. Constantino isn't buying it — and he has a track record that says he shouldn't.

Constantino called the poll "political corruption" in a post on X. "They put out a totally fake poll and they do this for one reason only – to help the Democratic Party fundraise," he wrote. "We're talking to lawyers seeing what can be done."

His campaign says the Survey USA poll undercounted rural voters, included a write-in candidate who shouldn't have been in the mix, and produced favorability numbers for Gov. Kathy Hochul that don't match reality in upstate New York. Constantino says he has his own poll showing him "way up."

The pattern is familiar. In April, a similar poll had Constantino trailing in the GOP primary despite Trump's blockbuster endorsement over state Assemblyman Robert Smullen. He won that primary by 19 points.

The timing is convenient. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Stefanik's seat to its list of 58 competitive districts just before the poll dropped. Gendebien seized on the numbers, saying voters "don't want more name-calling and stunts, we want results." The establishment press ran with the narrative.

Republican strategist Ed Rollins, who ran Reagan's 1984 campaign, told the New York Post the House may be lost: "You've got more races in play than you ever thought would be in play this year." That's exactly the narrative manufactured polls are designed to create — show a Republican trailing in safe territory, shift the story from policy to momentum, let donors open wallets and volunteers stay home.

Not every poll tells the same story. In Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary, a James Madison Institute poll released August 6 shows Rep. Byron Donalds at 49 percent, 31 points clear of Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, the Daily Caller reported. Donalds has raised over $90 million and carries endorsements from Trump, Elon Musk, Ted Cruz, and Chip Roy. That poll reflects the ground truth. No one needed to manufacture those numbers.

Constantino still has Trump in his corner — the president called him on stage at a Garden City event Friday alongside Bruce Blakeman. The question is whether a pollster's spreadsheet matters more than a 20-point Republican registration edge and a candidate who already beat a bad poll by 19 points. The burden of proof is on Survey USA.