Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary despite being outspent nearly nine-to-one on advertising by an establishment that rallied around Rep. Haley Stevens and flooded the race with roughly $65 million in outside money — proving that even AIPAC's checkbook has limits when voters show up. The result is a direct rebuke to the Democratic machine that tried to anoint Stevens from the start, and it raises a question that matters far beyond Michigan: can lobby dollars still buy a Senate seat when grassroots energy hits record turnout?
NBC News projected El-Sayed the winner early Wednesday after a night of nail-biting counting. With 95% in, he held 48.7% to Stevens' 47.3%, according to the Associated Press. Democratic turnout shattered the 2020 primary record of 1.18 million and approached the 1.6 million mark set in that year's presidential primary — a staggering number for a midterm August.
Follow the money and the story writes itself. AIPAC-affiliated groups alone poured more than $30 million into the race, mostly boosting Stevens or attacking El-Sayed, according to NBC News. The New York Post put total primary spending near $80 million. AdImpact, the ad-tracking firm, calculated that Stevens and her allies spent nearly nine times what El-Sayed's side did on television. El-Sayed himself put the ratio at 12-to-one at a Detroit debate last week: "If you need a $60 million crutch, you probably can't be elected on your own terms."
The crutch wasn't just cash. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer endorsed Stevens late last month — a last-ditch effort to stop El-Sayed, as NBC described it. Retiring Sen. Gary Peters backed Stevens. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer aligned with her. Stevens' watch party was a who's-who of Michigan Democratic officialdom: Whitmer, former Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Rep. Hillary Scholten, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The entire party infrastructure lined up behind one candidate.
El-Sayed countered with Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the United Auto Workers. His platform — Medicare for All, getting money out of politics, and criticism of U.S. aid to Israel — drew a clear line. He accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, a position NBC noted is particularly relevant in Michigan with its large Arab American and Muslim populations. Stevens supported aid to Israel. That policy clash, and the lobbying money behind it, became the race's defining fault line.
Here's the wrinkle Republicans are betting on: the National Republican Senatorial Committee actually ran digital ads highlighting El-Sayed's progressive credentials and Sanders endorsement — a transparent play to boost him into the general election, NBC reported, because the GOP thinks he's easier to beat. Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee who ran unopposed, told the New York Post he expects the Democratic winner to struggle with coalition-building. Rogers lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin and now gets his rematch against a different Democrat.
El-Sayed, the 41-year-old son of Egyptian immigrants and a former public health official, framed his campaign as a movement. "We are not a purple state; we are a state in need of a movement to take our politics back," he told supporters at Detroit's Majestic Theater. He urged party unity against Rogers, calling him a "corporate sellout" who "should never see the inside of the US Senate," according to the Guardian.
Stevens, for her part, kept a brave face. "We knew that this was going to be a close race, and that's exactly what we've got," she said. "I am feeling good about this race." She told supporters to "get some sleep or get some coffee" and wait for Detroit and Flint results that never closed the gap.
The question now is whether a candidate who built his brand on rejecting establishment money and opposing the Israel lobby can survive a general election in a state Trump won twice. The GOP certainly thinks they want him as the opponent. El-Sayed clearly disagrees. One of them is about to be proven wrong.
