AIPAC and its affiliated super PACs dumped as much as $6.4 million into a single House race in California's 14th District, and the voters still handed the win to state Sen. Aisha Wahab — a reminder that foreign lobby cash doesn't always get what it pays for.
The stakes are straightforward: if a foreign lobby can drop millions in a few weeks to sink a candidate who won't pledge loyalty, every member of Congress is on notice to fall in line or face the same treatment. Wahab's win proves the formula can break. The question is whether it was a fluke or a sign that voters are catching on.
Wahab secured 53.1% of the vote to defeat Melissa Hernandez at 46.9%, according to the Associated Press. Hernandez, the president of the Bay Area Rapid Transit board, was the beneficiary of a massive outside spending campaign. The Washington Examiner reported that AIPAC poured $4.4 million into the race. The Guardian, citing the monitoring group Track AIPAC, put the total at nearly $6.4 million in pro-Hernandez ads and anti-Wahab attack ads over a matter of weeks. Either way, it was a staggering sum for a House special election that only covers the final months of former Rep. Eric Swalwell's term — a seat that expires in January.
Wahab told the Guardian the spending amounted to "election interference" and an attempt to buy the seat. She said critical ads misrepresented her record.
The establishment wing of the Democratic Party rallied behind the AIPAC-backed candidate. Rep. Zoe Lofgren, chair of California's Democratic delegation, endorsed Hernandez in the race's final days, arguing Wahab didn't back a quick caretaker appointment to fill the vacancy. The progressive wing pushed back hard. Amar Shergill, former chair of the progressive caucus of the California Democratic Party, called Lofgren's move "astounding," according to Politico, as reported by the Guardian.
The seat opened up after Swalwell resigned in April amid sexual assault and harassment allegations, which he has denied. The New York Post reported that federal agents seized electronic devices from Swalwell at San Francisco airport and searched his Washington, D.C., home.
Most outlets buried the AIPAC spending angle. The Associated Press and KABC-TV didn't mention it at all. The New York Post noted it in passing — "groups affiliated with AIPAC poured millions" — but gave it no emphasis. Only the Washington Examiner and the Guardian treated the lobby spending as central to the story.
Wahab, who became the first Afghan American and first Muslim woman elected to the California legislature, will also be the first Afghan American to serve in Congress. She previously served on the Hayward City Council and authored a 2023 bill to ban caste-based discrimination, which Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed.
Nothing is settled. Wahab and Hernandez face off again in November for a full two-year term. AIPAC's donors will decide whether to double down or cut their losses. The lobby already proved it's willing to spend heavily to enforce discipline on Israel policy. The voters of CA-14 proved that money only goes so far — for now.
