Republicans just absorbed one of the worst midterm beatings in modern history, and the establishment is scrambling to blame anyone but itself.
The GOP didn't lose because its base walked away. It lost because it walked away from its base — signing off on a foreign conflict that sent gas prices through the roof and offering working Americans nothing but the bill.
The numbers are devastating. Democrats seized both chambers. Veteran forecaster Charlie Cook called it the worst electoral climate for Republicans "in at least a generation, and maybe since Watergate." He didn't mince words: "How about an a-- whooping? It's more than a beating. It's a hell of a beating." Cook described the backlash as a "red undertow" — voters furious at Trump and "Republicans who enabled him," not some sudden embrace of the Democratic agenda.
That distinction matters. The Daily Beast framed Cook's forecast as a "disastrous prediction for Trump," centering the story on presidential blame. The New York Post led with Trump's conciliatory spin — "The Democrats did a good job" — and his insistence that if he'd been on the ballot, his voters would have shown up. Both outlets buried what Trump himself admitted: the Iran war and the pump prices that followed.
"Part of it was Iran," Trump conceded to Fox News. "People agree with what I'm doing on Iran, but they really probably weren't willing to do the short-term consequence of paying more for gasoline. I understand that. I don't agree with it." Nine months into the conflict, AAA reports Americans are still paying $4.15 a gallon for regular gas and $6.29 for diesel. That's not a short-term spike. That's a tax on working people to fund a war they never asked for — and a direct violation of the America First promise that got Trump elected.
The establishment Republicans who rubber-stamped this intervention got exactly what they deserved. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott lost his race — Trump tagged him as a "RINO." Ken Paxton lost his Senate bid to Democrat James Talarico in ruby-red Texas. Cook noted that some GOP senators "underperform what a potted plant might get" in their home states. When your senator can't beat a houseplant, the problem isn't the voters.
Trump's approval rating has cratered into the low 30s, its lowest on record. But Cook's key insight is the one the press doesn't want to amplify: this wasn't a blue wave. It was a red undertow — conservatives and working-class voters who stayed home or flipped because they're fed up with a party that talks America First and delivers nation-building abroad while their grocery bills climb.
Trump says no cabinet shakeups are coming. Democrats are already musing about impeaching Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. The war goes on. The gas prices stay high. And the same people who cost the party its majorities are still making the calls.
