Republican voters are preparing to cross over and vote for Democrats in key Senate races at rates not seen in modern midterms — and the GOP establishment has earned every desertion.
New York Times-Siena College polls released over the weekend show between 9% and 16% of Republican likely voters favoring the Democratic nominee in five critical states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas. A CNN review of polling in each state found Democratic candidates leading among GOP voters by double digits in four key Senate races, and by an average of at least 9 points in seven of the top 10 races. Reuters/Ipsos puts Trump's approval at a record-low 32%, with independents and Latinos who backed him in 2024 now peeling off. An NBC News/Telemundo poll found 59% of Latino voters now prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress — double the share from two years ago.
This is not Democrats winning anyone over. This is Republicans losing voters they took for granted.
The most striking numbers come out of Kansas, a state Trump carried by 16 points in 2024. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor, is tied with GOP Sen. Roger Marshall at 45% among likely voters, with the Libertarian pulling 5%. Hamilton has peeled off 16% of registered Republicans and 10% of self-identified Republicans. Marshall, by contrast, took just 2-3% of Democrats. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek is taking 12% of registered Republicans; Marist and Fox News polls both showed him pulling double digits among self-identified Republicans. In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola took 13% of registered Republicans. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff grabbed 10% of self-identified Republicans in a Fox News poll.
Democratic nominees in North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas are all averaging 9% of the GOP vote.
The pattern is especially pronounced among Republicans who don't identify with the MAGA movement — roughly a quarter of them are preparing to vote Democrat.
CNN noted an important caveat: polling in recent presidential elections underestimated GOP support, though that pattern did not hold in the 2022 midterms. Whether that undercount resurfaces in 2026 remains an open question.
The Guardian reported that Americans are souring on the economy and the war with Iran — two issues they attribute directly to the administration. Some Republicans have started distancing themselves from Trump over immigration and other issues as they scramble to hold local support. Trump himself shrugged off the numbers before a flight to Nebraska:
