One Wall Street analyst calls SpaceX a "pipe dream" at today's prices — while 27 others are telling clients to buy. That split tells you everything about who profits from doubt and who gets left behind when American builders actually deliver.
SpaceX went public in June at $135 a share. It now commands a valuation north of $2 trillion. The company is reportedly chasing $40 billion in financing — led by Apollo Global Management — to buy Nvidia chips for AI infrastructure, with plans to expand computing capacity from 1.4 gigawatts to nearly 10 by late 2027. Starlink doubled its subscriber base to 12 million. Second-quarter revenue surged 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion. The Starship rocket entered orbit for the first time on September 28. These are real milestones from a company that builds things — not a consultancy selling climate compliance seminars.
But investor Timur Mekhantev, as Markets Insider reported, says the stock price has already priced in "years of great work," and the financials don't back it up. SpaceX trades near 100 times trailing revenue. Capital expenditures hit $28.5 billion in the first half of 2026, producing negative free cash flow of roughly $25 billion. Lockup expirations after third-quarter earnings and in December could flood the market with insider shares. Mekhantev's 12-month target: $110 — roughly 34% below recent trading levels. His rating: Sell.
Wall Street isn't buying the skepticism. The consensus sits at 27 Buys, 4 Holds, and just 2 Sells, with an average price target of $215.72, according to Markets Insider. Goldman Sachs just raised its target from $220 to $230, and CNBC's Jim Cramer said that bump "ratified their previous $220 figure" — proof, in his view, that the bull case has "some rigor." Cramer flagged SpaceX's compute-leasing business, renting excess capacity to Anthropic and Google, suggesting Musk could become Nvidia's largest customer. "Musk can immediately monetize these chips," Cramer said.
Notably, Cramer still won't put SpaceX in his Charitable Trust portfolio. The stock trades at roughly 137 times next-twelve-months earnings estimates. Even the loudest cheerleaders acknowledge the risk.
The real story for working Americans: one of the few companies still building hard infrastructure in this country is burning $25 billion in free cash flow and trading at nosebleed multiples. Mekhantev says wait for the lockup expirations. The bulls say the growth is real and accelerating. Both can't be right — and the people who get this wrong will either ride the next American industrial wave or pay for somebody else's exit.
