Earlier this month, J.P. Morgan raised the odds of U.S. recession by the year-end to 35% citing easing labor market pressures, while Goldman Sachs lowered its probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 20%. Last week the U.S. Department of Labor had lowered its estimate for total payroll employment by 818,000 for the period from April 2023 to March 2024, meaning U.S. employers had added far fewer jobs than originally reported in the year through March. Expectations for a rate cut of up to 50 basis points in the September meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve have risen, with Chair Jerome Powell signaling in his speech at Jackson Hole last Friday that the 'time has come' to reduce rates.