The reverberations from a blowout U.S. employment number could threaten an assortment of trades predicated on falling interest rates, if stronger-than-expected growth spurs investors to radically shift views on how much the Federal Reserve will need to cut borrowing costs in the months ahead. Expectations of steep rate cuts spurred bets on everything from rising Treasury prices to a weaker dollar in recent months, while juicing corners of the stock market such as utilities. The Fed delivered a jumbo-sized 50 basis-point cut last month, temporarily vindicating that view.
The gap between bitcoin's spot price and realized price is compressing toward levels that historically marked cycle bottoms, but the on-chain data shows the capitulation that typically precedes those ...