Even with historical turnout Trump will still win. The projections you are showing rely on what they call likely voters. Only to be a likely voter you have to have voted in the last 3 consecutive elections and a large number of trump supporters have only voted in the last 2 elections. In fact a decent number skipped the last election because Trump wasn't in it. So none of these people were added into the projections you sight. This equates to millions of hardcore Trump supporters. Historical turnout will mean another tight race, but in the end it would still be Trump's race.